News Highlights
- During the week of August 3 - 7, 2026, coffee prices decreased on the New York exchange but increased on the London exchange.
- According to the USDA, world coffee production for the 2026/2027 crop year is forecast to reach 189.67 million bags, up 6.10% compared to the previous crop.
- According to the Korea Customs Service, in the first 6 months of 2026, the country's total coffee import volume decreased by 14.62% year-on-year, down to approximately 1.46 million bags.
- According to Cecafé, Brazil's coffee exports in the 2025/2026 crop year reached 38.46 million bags, down 15.7% compared to the previous crop.
- Fairtrade International continues to raise the minimum price for certified coffee.
- Coffee prices in Lam Dong and Dak Lak increased compared to the previous week.
- According to Vietnam Customs, coffee export volume in July 2026 reached about 2.46 million bags, a 43.31% increase year-on-year.
- The largest markets importing Vietnamese coffee in the early months of 2026 include: the EU, the United States, Japan, and China.
- Tu Mo Rong Commune, Quang Ngai Province, launched a "20 days and nights of planting coffee" campaign.
- The 2nd Son La Coffee Festival in 2026 is scheduled to be held in October at the Northwest Square with the theme "Son La Arabica - Reaching out to the world".
1. World Coffee Market
Global Coffee Prices
From August 3 to August 7, 2026, global coffee prices fluctuated across the New York and London exchanges. Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee for September 2026 delivery in London averaged $3,832/ton, an increase of 0.6% from the previous week and up 15.87% compared to the same period in 2025. The highest price during the week reached $3,891/ton, and the lowest was $3,786/ton.
In the New York market, Arabica coffee for September 2026 delivery averaged $7,162/ton, down 0.7% from the previous week, and up 10.6% year-on-year. The week's highest price hit $7,322/ton, while the lowest was $7,044/ton.
Global Coffee Trade
According to the latest update from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS), global coffee production for the 2025/2026 crop year remains at 178.80 million bags, an increase of 1.14% compared to the previous crop, while consumption demand was adjusted up to 173.46 million bags. Accordingly, the market is expected to have a surplus of 5.34 million bags and ending stocks are projected to reach 24.37 million bags, up 10.72% year-on-year.
Figure 1: Global Coffee Production and Demand Forecast (Source: USDA)
For the 2026/2027 crop year, global coffee production is forecast to hit a record 189.67 million bags, up 6.10% from the previous crop, mainly thanks to the production recovery in Brazil and improved yields in Ethiopia, Uganda, and Vietnam. Brazil alone is forecast to reach 71.90 million bags (47.50 million bags of Arabica and 24.40 million bags of Conilon Robusta). Over the past decade, Brazil's Conilon production has nearly doubled.
Global coffee demand for the 2026/2027 crop year is forecast at 179.74 million bags, creating a surplus of about 9.93 million bags. However, the supply and demand outlook still faces risks from the possible emergence of El Niño and weather patterns in late 2026.
South Korea Market Updates
The development of coffee culture in South Korea and stable demand continue to drive consumption trends in this market. However, according to the Korea Customs Service, total coffee imports in the first 6 months of 2026 fell 14.62% year-on-year, to roughly 1.46 million bags. High global coffee prices and the depreciation of the Korean won (down more than 6% against the USD since early 2026) have increased import costs, prompting businesses to reduce purchasing and utilize existing inventory.
Brazil Market Updates
Brazil's coffee exports in the 2025/2026 crop year (July 2025 - June 2026) decreased in volume but maintained stable revenue due to high price levels. According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), the country exported 38.46 million bags, a 15.7% drop from the 45.62 million bags in the previous crop. Export revenue reached $14.6 billion, nearly on par with the $14.7 billion recorded in the 2024/2025 crop year. The average export price surged from $332.6/bag to $379.1/bag.
Fairtrade Raises Coffee Minimum Price
Fairtrade International continues to increase the minimum price for certified coffee to better protect producers against rising input costs and international market volatility. Effective December 1, 2026, the minimum price for washed Arabica will rise from about $3.97/kg to $4.41/kg; natural Arabica will increase to roughly $4.30/kg. Washed and natural Robusta will increase to approximately $2.98/kg and $2.87/kg, respectively.
Development of Climate-Adaptive Coffee Varieties
Climate change is driving interest in lesser-known coffee varieties, with Excelsa coffee being seen as a potential climate-resilient option. As Arabica and Robusta increasingly suffer from high temperatures, rainfall volatility, and pests, Excelsa is showing better adaptability. In India, farms in Karnataka are expanding Excelsa trials. In Uganda, hundreds of farms are developing Excelsa as a climate adaptation solution.
2. Vietnam Domestic Market
Weekly Domestic Prices
In the week from August 3 to August 7, 2026, coffee prices in Lam Dong and Dak Lak provinces increased compared to the previous week. In Dak Lak, the average coffee price reached 97,413 VND/kg, up 0.7% from the previous week. In Lam Dong, the average price was 96,940 VND/kg. The highest recorded price of the week was 98,733 VND/kg in Dak Lak and Gia Lai.
Figure 2: Vietnam Domestic Green Coffee Bean Prices (Week 31/2026)
Vietnam Coffee Exports (First 10 Months of 2025/2026 Crop Year)
Vietnam's coffee exports continued to surge in July 2026. According to Vietnam Customs, the export volume in July reached about 2.46 million bags, a 43.31% increase year-on-year. Accumulated exports for the first 10 months of the 2025/2026 crop year reached approximately 26.34 million bags, an increase of 23.87% compared to the same period in the previous crop. The significant price gap between Arabica and Robusta has encouraged roasters to switch to the more competitively priced Robusta, benefiting Vietnam.
In the first 5 months of 2026, import demand across major markets diverged. Exports to the EU increased 21.8% to $1.39 billion, pushing Vietnam's market share in the EU from 10.4% to 12.0%. Exports to the US slightly declined, but market share grew from 5.3% to 5.7%. Exports to China recorded the most positive trend, surging 87.1% to $99.6 million, increasing the market share from 8.8% to 15.3%.
Quang Ngai Launches Coffee Planting Campaign
Tu Mo Rong Commune in Quang Ngai Province has launched a "20 days and nights of planting coffee" campaign to expand the coffee area in planned regions, aiming to gradually form a concentrated production zone and improve the efficiency of agricultural land use. Following the launch ceremony, the locality planted 4,500 coffee trees to support three households in Ngoc Leang village.
Son La Prepares for the 2026 Coffee Festival
The 2nd Son La Coffee Festival in 2026 is scheduled for October at the Northwest Square under the theme "Son La Arabica - Reaching out to the world". The event is a key activity to promote the brand, stimulate trade, and attract investment into the local coffee value chain. The festival aims to strengthen linkages between businesses, cooperatives, and Arabica raw material areas.
References: Source Data Extracted from: Báo cáo mặt hàng cà phê số 31 năm 2026 của TRUNG TÂM THÔNG TIN VÀ DỊCH VỤ NÔNG NGHIỆP VÀ MÔI TRƯỜNG