According to the "Coffee: World Markets and Trade" report published in July 2026 by the USDA, the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to set new record milestones on a global scale.
1. Global Coffee Market Highlights (2026/27)
The market is witnessing a significant easing of supply after years of tightness:
Global Production: Forecasted to reach a record 189.7 million bags (60 kilograms), an increase of 10.8 million bags compared to the previous year. This strong growth is primarily driven by record output in Brazil, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Vietnam.
Global Consumption: Demand is also on the rise, expected to hit a record 179.7 million bags. The largest consumption gains are recorded in the European Union (EU) and the United States.
Global Exports: Thanks to abundant supplies, world coffee bean exports are forecast to increase by 11.9 million bags, reaching a record 131.4 million bags.
Ending Stocks & Prices: Ending stocks are expected to rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags. The availability of additional supplies has heavily impacted the market, causing coffee prices to drop by 25 percent over the last 7 months (as measured by the ICO monthly composite price index).
2. Supply Dynamics in Key Producing Countries
Production shifts in major exporting countries are reshaping the supply-demand balance:
Brazil (Strong Recovery): After enduring a 5-year period of underperformance due to adverse weather conditions, Brazil's combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast to rise by 8.9 million bags to a record 71.9 million bags. Arabica output is expected to rebound impressively, increasing by 9.5 million bags to 47.5 million, thanks to timely rainfall in Minas Gerais. Conversely, Robusta production is forecast to retreat by 600,000 bags to 24.4 million as cooler temperatures and elevated rainfall lowered yields in Espirito Santo.
Vietnam (Setting a New Peak): Production is forecast to increase by 800,000 bags to a record 32.5 million bags due to expanding area and higher yields. Recent high prices have provided farmers with the financial motivation to increase expenditures on fertilizers and other agricultural inputs to boost yields. Bean exports are forecast at 25.4 million bags, while domestic consumption is expected to reach a record 5.0 million bags.
Colombia & Ethiopia (Steady Growth): Colombia's output is expected to rise by 900,000 bags to 13.4 million bags on adequate soil moisture and increased utilization of inputs like fertilizers and pesticides. Meanwhile, Ethiopia continues its growth streak driven by the replacement of cultivated areas with higher-yielding coffee varieties, pushing production up by over 500,000 bags to a record 12.1 million bags.
Indonesia (Weather-Driven Decline): Bucking the overall upward trend, Indonesia's production is forecast to drop by 1.0 million bags to 11.4 million bags. This is primarily because excessive rainfall disrupted flowering and cherry formation for Robusta trees in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java.
3. Business Perspective
The surge in global supply and the subsequent downward adjustment of market prices bring both opportunities and challenges. For purchasing and processing units, this is an ideal time to optimize raw material costs. However, export volume competition from Brazil and other markets will become increasingly fierce.
Focusing on quality, strict compliance with food safety standards, farming area codes, and international sustainability certifications will be key to protecting the value of export products against general commodity market fluctuations.
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Source Citation:
This article is summarized and analyzed based on data from the "Coffee: World Markets and Trade" report published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA - Foreign Agricultural Service) in July 2026.